The Top Flight Power Rankings: The Premier League’s Top 5 Teams
2. Manchester City
If there is an example of the analytics not telling the whole story, it is with Pep Guardiola’s team. According to understat.com, City is first in the Premier League in xPTs. They are also first in xGDiff and npxG + xA per fbref.com in the division.
Pep’s club is not only first in these categories – it’s not even close. If you pick virtually any offensive statistic, City would likely be first in that category by a wide margin. The reality is they are in third place by fourteen points. City has been decimated by injuries, lack of depth on defence, and expectations being set too high.
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As a result, the mental and physical fatigue has also set in on a team that is full of world-class talent led by the second-best manager in the world.
The weak link is in two areas. First, the back four lacks depth, talent, and experience resulting in uncharacteristic errors leading to goals (City is third in the Premier League in xGA, per understat.com). Second, Pep Guardiola’s intensity has reached a point where his message is getting lost in the noise leading to further critical mistakes.
The defending champions may get injured players back and change focus to cup competitions, but I suspect that the mental fatigue will worsen leading to Pep taking another wine sabbatical in New York City.
Dumpster Fire Level: Full of bio-medical hazard waste, old tubes of ointment, tires, and unmet expectations.