How Liverpool can still finish in Champions League Spots this season

Liverpool have had a less-than-impressive season. With all the injuries hitting them at the worst possible time, it has truly been a season to forget. Injuries to their top choice centre backs hit them the hardest, and that made them fall from top place, all the way down to 7th at one point. They’re 6th now, a few points off the top four. Their goal is to finish in the top four. It took another massive hit when the Reds drew the game against Leeds on Monday.

The top four race in this season’s Premier League is very underrated, I should say. It consists of teams that were not there prior to the season. One of them is West Ham, a team that came from finishing 16th last season to now being at 4th place, a point above Chelsea although having played a game more.

Another one is Liverpool, a team that dropped from 1st last season to 6th this season. That goal of finishing top four isn’t impossible, to be honest. But, it depends on other clubs bottling leads. It’s not the most ideal situation, but it’s achievable. At least on paper.

How can Liverpool still finish in the top four spots? How high are their chances?

Achieving the goal would require Chelsea (also West Ham, but mostly Chelsea) dropping points. It’s not like they’ve been very inconsistent ever since Thomas Tuchel has arrived at the Bridge. But, the main problem for them may be the fixture congestion, which could lead to them burning out in the Premier League/resting key players in the Premier League fixtures.

Normally, I wouldn’t say that’d be the case because the players are usually primed towards the business end of the season. But, this isn’t a normal season. This is a season that has had so many injuries, so many players being out for weeks due to COVID, this season already being as congested as it is, it’s not been great so far.

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Because of the games happening one after the other, sometimes players are either forced to play till they burn out, or they get injured, or they’re rested in some games in which they’d normally play. Now, Liverpool play six games in the remainder of the season. In that same amount of time, Chelsea play 10, and that doesn’t include the final of the Champions League, should they advance. That’s a difference and a half.

In just a month they play four, potentially five more games than Liverpool and it ought to hit them at some point. We still don’t know when they play their Premier League game against Leicester City since the FA Cup final is scheduled to be played on the same day as the Premier League game.

Either way, the most Liverpool can do is to win all their remaining games and hope that Chelsea drop points in their six Premier League games. It doesn’t seem likely, but it’s what the Reds are riding on at this point.

All statistics courtesy of FBref.com.