Premier League: Leicester City’s Downward Spiral Explained
The better question might be: Is 17 matches a large enough sample size? Looking at the numbers, they provide some key answers. The statistics provided are all from understat.com
Through the start of the season to December 9th (17 matches), Leicester had an expected goal ratio of (xG) of 28.8 while scoring 42 actual goals. Their expected goals against (xGA), during the same period, were 17.79 and they had only given up 11 actual goals.
The difference between their expected and actual goals of -11.2 led the Premier League. It suggested the Foxes were quite skillful at clinically finishing their goal opportunities. However, this number could have been a result of luck and randomness, which meant that they could regress to the mean (or expectations).
Manchester City, during their first sixteen matches, had an xG of 45.89 and had scored 44 goals suggesting possible underperformance. Though the difference of +1.89 actually is negligible. In other words, in regards to goal scoring, Pep’s men were on track.
The difference between xGA and actual goals against for Leicester in their first seventeen matches was +6.79, which was second in the Premier League at the time. As with the expected goals vs actual goals difference, this number suggested that the Foxes were both excellent at stopping opponents from converting goal chances, and possibly lucky because of football’s random nature.
The defending champion’s difference between xGA and goals against during the initial four months was a mega -2.37, suggesting City was also on track in this area as well.
More from Analysis
- Unlocking the Transfer Market Value of Evan Ferguson: A Comprehensive Analysis
- Unveiling the Strategy: How Marc Cucurella Fits in Manchester United’s Game Plan
- Are Manchester United title favourites with Hojlund signing?
- Premier League players who could win UEFA Nations League this year
- Promoted Team Preview: Vincent Kompany’s Burnley look to surprise
During the first four months of the Premier League season, Leicester City was one of the best in the league in both, converting goal opportunities into actual goals, and stopping their opponent’s from converting their goal opportunities. Guardiola’s team, during the same time period, was pretty much on track between what was expected and in actuality on both measures.
Brendan Rodger’s squad had a -9.41 difference between expected points (xPTS) and actual points in their first 17 games, while City had a +5.17 difference. Expected points in the match are based on the comparison of one team’s xG versus their opponents xG during a match played out over thousands of simulations.
Leicester’s -9.41 difference between expected and actual points was second in the Premier League during this time frame and further suggested that through skill and determination they were able to pull out results. With a sample size of 17 matches, the possibility still existed that they could be regressing as well.
On the other hand, Manchester City’s xPTS was +5.17 from actual points results, suggesting the same scenario as the Foxes in reverse, but with the sample size of sixteen matches, where movement could also occur.