The top 10 finishers in the Premier League based on statistics

3. Harry Wilson, Bournemouth

The Welsh 22-year-old is a product of the Liverpool junior system. He is currently on loan from the Reds and is playing his first full season in the Premier League. His xG for the season is 2.96, but has converted them into seven goals in eighteen league starts. Harry scored 15 goals for Derby County in the Championship last season. He has played all forward positions but excels as a right winger. He is one of only three Premier League players who have scored at least four goals more than their advanced analytics suggest they would this season, suggesting solid clinical finishing. By the way, per Transfermarkt, his market value has jumped from $8.8 million to $27.5 million in the last year.

2. Jamie Vardy, Leicester City

Vardy is the Premier League’s top goal-scorer with seventeen goals for the Foxes. The 33-year-old workhorse is having one of his best seasons and is matching his productivity level from Leicester’s title winning season. Analytically, he is also doing better this season at finishing goal opportunities. Last season, he scored 18 goals with an xG of 17.0. This year his xG is 12.94 making his conversion rate to actual goals +4.06.

His name has been tossed around like an angry stink bug for many years as a transfer target, however, the Foxes have considered him a consistent mainstay. He has less than two years left on his current contract so his future with the club may be uncertain, though given his status on the team and his age I do not think he is going anywhere.

1. Danny Ings, Southampton

The 27 year old English is finally getting another opportunity to have a full season on the pitch in the Premier League. In 2014-15, he scored eleven goals for a relegated Burnley club in 35 starts. Danny was transferred to Liverpool for the following season keeping him in the Premier League, but he did not see much playing time.

Last season, the Reds loaned him to Southampton where he appeared in twenty four Premier League matches notching seven goals. However, his xG was 8.8, suggesting that there had been some missed opportunities as there had been some struggles with injuries.

The Saints did see potential and completed a transfer deal with Liverpool for $24.2 million. The center-forward has exceeded expectations by notching fifteen goals in the Premier League for the Saints during a season that has been as jarring as any Al Pacino movie made after 2003.

Danny has consistently shown a strong capacity this season to be more clinically precise with his shots making him practically lethal with the ball, even in tight spots. Three of his goals this season have come from shots with an xG of 0.1 or lower. Seven of his goals were from shots with an xG below 0.33. His xG is 10.25, making a conversion rate of +4.75, which is significantly higher than Vardy and makes him the top finisher in the Premier League.

This list excludes a number of other high-profile goal scorers. In fact, seven of the top 20 Premier League goals scores have goal counts below their expected goals. This group includes names like Roberto Firmino, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, and Marcus Rashford. This suggests at this point in the season that they are under-performing when it comes to clinical finishing. For the exception of Firmino’s Liverpool squad, these player’s clubs have had difficulty all year in converting their goal opportunities indicating a correlation between the two issues.

If these scorers start rounding into better form, they may join this top ten list in the near future.