When Neymar fell to the ground after a Juan Zuniga challenge, most people believed it was a stalling tactic. He was just faking to waste time. But when he was carried off on a stretcher, the situation became much more serious. Then he was ruled out, not just for Brazil’s semifinal against Germany, but also for, if they should make it, the final. A whole nation wept. The star of the tournament, the poster boy of Brazil, would not be playing. But Neymar’s absence has more than just an emotional impact on the already emotional Brazil team. The young star has been the only real attacking option the Brazilians have had; Fred and Jo have looked entirely underwhelming, and while Hulk has gotten good chances, he has consistently failed to put them away.
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Now the Seleção face Germany, a team many have tipped to win the tournament. The Germans have no shortage of attacking options, between Thomas Muller, Mesut Ozil and Miroslav Klose, who is tied for most goals in World Cup history, with 15. Germany also has a strong and physical midfield, based around Bastian Schweinsteiger, Sami Khedira and Toni Kroos. Germany’s real weakness is their back line. Jogi Loew has a shortage of fullbacks; although Phillip Lahm is certainly the best in the world, Loew wanted to use him in a defensive midfield role, rather than at right back. This left the Germans playing four center backs, and a high line; Algeria picked apart this line, counter attacking with speed. Had it not been for Manuel Neuer’s “sweeper keeper” heroics, Algeria would have scored more than just once. The problem was that the German back line was too slow, allowing Islam Slimani to make darting runs behind. Michael Cox wrote “Algeria were keen to exploit Per Mertesacker’s lack of pace. That’s a long-established weakness of the Arsenal centre-back, but it’s rarely been so obvious, and Algeria constantly attempted to hit long passes just beyond his reach.” Loew was forced to move Lahm to right back to counter this effect, against France.
“Algeria were keen to exploit Per Mertesacker’s lack of pace… it’s rarely been so obvious, and Algeria constantly attempted to hit long passes just beyond his reach” – Michael Cox
This is where Brazil will need to look to capitalize. Germany will still play without a natural left, although Benedict Howedes has looked good. Whoever plays on Brazil’s right will need to make smart, timed runs behind the back line, and Brazil’s midfielders will need to put that player through will accurate passes. But who will those players be? If Neymar was able to play, then he could serve that role well, but he won’t be there. So how will Scolari have Brazil line up? Here’s what I think he should do.
This is how Brazil should look initially, and when they are attacking. Scolari should use the same formation Chelsea used in the Premier League against Manchester City, back in Feburary. The Blues won that game 1-0, the first time City had been held scoreless at home since 2010. Jose Mourinho used a 4-2-3-1 formation in that match as well, and Scolari should use the same outline. Jose started Nemanja Matic and David Luiz in two defensive midfield spots. Luiz Gustavo has looked good for Brazil in that role, and Fernandinho’s physicality will be needed. Mourinho then used Eden Hazard on the left, Willian in the middle and Ramires on the right, as his attacking trio. Samuel Eto’o started as the lone striker. Chelsea played defensively, allowing City to keep attacking, and drawing them deeper and deeper into Chelsea’s half. Then, Hazard, Willian and Ramires would break out, and counter with pace, catching City’s back line totally unprepared. This is how Branislav Ivanovic scored the winning, and only, goal of the game; off a counter, when City’s defense was unorganized and scrambling to recover.
Brazil can use this formation similarly. With Oscar in the middle, and Willian and Ramires on the wings, the Brazilians can count on the Chelsea trio to do their share of defending; Mourinho instilled that much in them. Then the three midfielders can break, off a corner or free kick, and catch Manuel Neuer out in the open. Hulk will also serve in the striker role well. He is strong and fast, and can make runs behind the defense, and also draw the attention of Germany’s center backs away from Oscar.
When Germany has the ball, however, the Brazilians need to drop to a more defensive formation. Hulk will move to the right wing, and Ramires will drop back into the midfield, to form a 4-3-3. This will give Luiz Gustavo and Fernandinho extra physical support in the midfield, which will certainly be needed against the strong German side. Since Germany’s fullbacks are attack minded, the 4-3-3 is a riskky formation because it leaves Marcelo and Maicon exposed to overlaps. However, this will draw Lahm and Howedes into the midfield more often, opening more room for Ramires, Willian and Hulk on the counter. When Brazil do get the ball and counter, it will be easy for Hulk to move back into the middle, and hopefully draw the attention of Howedes and the rest of the back line with him. Then Ramires can break out of the midfield and have yards of open space to attack with.
This combination of attacking and defensive formations will give Brazil a great chance to win this game. Of course, it will all come down to how the players execute the game plan, but if Brazil can emulate Chelsea’s success, then they can go on to win this game.