Unlocking the Transfer Market Value of Evan Ferguson: A Comprehensive Analysis

Evan Ferguson is lighting up the English Premier League with four goals in four games, competing with Erling Haaland

The ongoing transfer window has witnessed an extravagant spending spree, with clubs shelling out an astonishing €1.4 billion in their pursuit of top-notch strikers*. However, the return on this investment has not been commensurate with the clubs’ expectations.

Despite the exorbitant spending, the scarcity of quality strikers in football remains a pressing concern. In the midst of this dilemma, a rising star has emerged, capturing the football world’s attention with his exceptional physical prowess and innate goal-scoring instincts. We are, of course, referring to Evan Ferguson, whose remarkable performance saw him net a breathtaking hat-trick against Newcastle United during GW 4 of the 2023/24 Premier League season.

The 18-year-old sensation has undoubtedly become the focal point of interest among various clubs due to his remarkable goal-scoring abilities and adept poaching instincts, which were on full display during the clash against Newcastle United at the Amex Stadium.

In his first goal, he exhibited poaching ability by swiftly capitalizing on a fumbled save by Nick Pope. The second and third goals, however, showcased his ability to breach the Toon’s defensive resilience from a distance, leaving spectators in awe. What further captured the admiration of fans was the player’s exceptional skill in dropping more profoundly into the midfield when the forward line struggled to receive the ball, demonstrating his versatility and footballing intelligence. In the current season, he has already notched up an impressive four goals in just four games, marking a significant accomplishment. It’s worth noting that he has already surpassed the halfway mark of his previous season’s tally of six goals in Premier League 2022/23.

The remarkable display has generated widespread discussion, reverberating not only through traditional media outlets but also across the various social media platforms. De Zerbi, the manager of Brighton and Hove Albion, lauded the player’s exceptional performance and mentioned his potential to become one of the best in Europe. Despite this, he did not put off a potential interest by European giants for the signature of Evan Ferguson.

"It’s normal for Brighton to sell players. Important thing for Brighton is not to keep but to find the replacement. This is right work we need to doVia: Sky Sports"

This prompts us to wonder: How much would Evan Ferguson cost in the current transfer market?

In the recently concluded summer transfer window across the globe, multiple clubs broke the bank to sign a traditional No 9. Amongst the strikers, Harry Kane cost Bayern Munich €100 million despite having a year on his contract, whereas promising talents like Randal Kolo Muani commanded a hefty €95 million fee from Paris Saint-Germain, while Rasmus Hojlund joined Manchester United for €75 million, despite relatively brief career boasting 56 and 23 goals/assists, respectively.

When analyzing the top ten striker transfers by transfer fee in the 2023/24 window, clubs collectively invested €542 million. These players boasted a combined experience of 1521 games, contributing to 794 goals and assists (G/A). Their average age stood at 23.4 years. Two regression analyses were conducted to ascertain Evan Ferguson’s ideal market value.

Scenario 1: With Harry Kane’s transfer fee, experience and age of players included 

In this scenario, the following are the intercept and independent variable values:

"Regression StatisticsIntercept: 93.04Age: 1.99Number of Matches Played: 0.45Career Goals: 0.046Assists: 5.023"

Considering multiple variables having an effect on the player’s transfer value, here is the equation to arrive at Evan Ferguson’s transfer value:

Evan Ferguson Market Value = Intercept + 1.99 * (Age) + 0.45 * (Number of Matches Played) + 0.046 * (Career Goals) + 5.023 * (Assists) 

From the above equation, the transfer value stands at €150 million

Scenario 2: With Harry Kane’s transfer fee, experience included except the age of players 

"Regression StatisticsIntercept: 93.04Number of Matches Played: 0.45Career Goals: 0.046Assists: 5.023"

Evan Ferguson Market Value = Intercept + 0.45 * (Number of Matches Played) + 0.046 * (Career Goals) + 5.023 * (Assists) 

From the above equation, the transfer value stands at €115 million

Scenario 3: Players under the age of 25 considered 

"Regression StatisticsIntercept: 41.56Number of Matches Played: 0.26Career Goals: 0.34Assists: 4.84"

Evan Ferguson Market Value = Intercept + 0.26 * (Number of Matches Played) + 0.34 * (Career Goals) + 4.84 * (Assists) 

From the above equation, the transfer value stands at €61 million

Based on the aforementioned analysis, it can be reasonably concluded that Evan Ferguson’s market value falls within the range of €61 million to €150 million. Notably, when Tottenham sought to secure his services as a replacement for Harry Kane, they were met with a substantial €115 million transfer fee. In light of the fervour surrounding his performance in Newcastle United’s GW 4 match and five years left on his contract, Evan Ferguson is poised to potentially surpass Moises Caicedo’s transfer fee, possibly commanding a staggering €160 million in the upcoming transfer windows with a potential to become the most expensive British signing to date.

* refers to the top 100 strikers by transfer value in the 2023/24 transfer window

All stats via transfermarkt and fbref

Who do you think will break the bank for Evan Ferguson? Have your say below!