Aston Villa find themselves in sixth place on the Premier League point table. Can they go all in for the UEFA Champions League qualification?
When the 2022/23 Premier League season kicked off, people had not expected a few things. Those include multiple managerial sackings, Arsenal challenging for the title, Chelsea’s probable finish outside the top half and Liverpool struggling to get a European spot. Apart from all of these, one more thing people did not expect was Aston Villa’s challenge to finish in the top six of the points table.
The tough times never last but tough teams do: The Aston Villa story
Aston Villa struggled in the first half of the season. They just had two wins from eleven games under Steven Gerrard. Following the abysmal form, Aston Villa sacked the former Liverpool midfielder on 21st October 2022 who had just four wins from 22 fixtures for the Villa Park outfit.
"Aston Villa Football Club can confirm that head coach Steven Gerrard has left the club with immediate effect(Via: Sky Sports)"
The West Midlands outfit did not take much time to appoint despite having choices like Mauricio Pochettino and Thomas Tuchel. They went all in for Unai Emery and announced his appointment on 25th October 2022. The Villa Park hot seat was not even cooled down when he was appointed by the management.
Despite having a tough set of fixtures when he came in, Unai Emery carried the new manager bounce at Villa Park. In three Premier League games before the FIFA World Cup 2022, Unai Emery registered wins against Manchester United and Brighton and Hove Albion. Though Aston Villa’s cup run came to a horrific end against the likes of Manchester United (EFL Cup) and Stevenage (FA Cup), the team had its all focus on bettering their position in the English top flight.
Is this Aston Villa’s best chance to qualify for the Champions League?
Though Aston Villa have featured in Europe, they are yet to put their foot in the UEFA Champions League. They had come close on two occasions 1992/93 and 2009/10 but the qualification criteria were different in 1992/93 whereas, in 2009/10, they went on a winless run that affected their chances.
Unai Emery has instilled confidence in the side to finish in the top ten with consecutive good results. They have five wins in their last five Premier League games. With their comfortable 2-0 win over fourth-placed Newcastle United, they are six points away from them having played an extra game.
Currently, Aston Villa have played 31 games and have 50 points to their name. Compared to their fellow top four challengers, the Villa Park outfit has a poor goal difference. However, their clinical performances in recent times can address the goal difference challenge in the coming seven games.
Challenges or a potential six-pointer: Aston Villa’s next seven Premier League games
Aston Villa have three home games and four away games in the English top flight. Amongst the remaining games, they have five potential six-pointer games and face two top-four contenders. Unai Emery’s side will play Manchester United (Old Trafford) and Tottenham Hotspur at home. Barring Fulham and Wolverhampton Wanderers, the remaining three games are against the teams that are fighting for the remaining European spots.
If we look at the last three Premier League seasons, the fourth-placed team has finished on 66, 67 and 71 respectively. In those seasons, the league leaders ended with 99, 86 and 93 respectively. Assuming Manchester City wins all the remaining eight games, the total would be 94 points. It would be easy to assume that the 2022/23 season will finish like that of the 2021/22 season. This means that closer to 70 points would be enough to finish in fourth place. Aston Villa need to win a minimum of six out of their remaining games and can stake a claim at the Champions League spot.
Martin O’Neill is the only manager who guided the West Midlands outfit to three successive sixth-placed Premier League finishes over a decade ago. Can Unai Emery join the elite list alongside Martin O’Neill at Villa Park?