Analysis: Can Pep Guardiola finally beat Thomas Tuchel?

Manchester City travels to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea in this weekend’s big matchup. Despite Pep Guardiola’s glittering CV, he has lost the last three times when he has faced a Thomas Tuchel managed side, most recently in the UEFA Champions League Final.

Tuchel is one of only two managers to get the better of Guardiola in three successive games, so what is going wrong for the City boss? And how can he get one over this Chelsea team?

Despite the German’s recent winning record over Guardiola, when the pair were both managing in the Bundesliga, Tuchel lost all four matchups between the two, so Guardiola will know a way around it, but there is no way of hiding that losing three times to the Blues boss has created an issue.

In the last two games between the London club and Manchester club, Chelsea have played a back five, a formation Guardiola does often struggle against, and started Timo Werner up top. The impact of playing Werner up top is that City have to compensate for his pace, this means bringing in a defender who can track his runs and follow him when he enters their half.

In each match up, Guardiola has done this, playing Benjamin Mendy in the FA Cup and Kyle Walker in the Champions League. This often takes away a part of City’s creativity, as they are unable to play forward-thinking Joao Cancelo. That makes it harder to break down a back five.

The Cityzens have also played two different midfields in their games, both of which failed to create a goal. In the FA Cup, it was a midfield five with two holding midfields, and in the Champions League, it was a midfield three, no holding players and strangely two players that can play upfront. It was almost as if Guardiola decided he was too defensive in the first game, so decided to go all out in the second. Neither worked.

How does Pep’s City beat Tuchel’S Chelsea this season?

This season, it is unlikely that Werner will start up top. Instead, it will be Romelu Lukaku, who poses different issues but does not possess the same speed as Werner, which gives Guardiola more options and more creative options at the back.

As for the midfield, City will need a more balanced midfield to combat Chelsea’s strong central two. City will need a holding midfielder, but one, not two, or you lose the creative spark you need to break down the number of defenders. They will also need to have Kevin de Bruyne deep, pulling the strings, rather than in the false-nine role.

Up top, the Manchester side will most probably still keep the false-nine, instead, with someone like Ferran Torres. They also have a new trick up their sleeve in £100 million man Jack Grealish.

For Guardiola to stop his losing streak, team balance will be key against a Chelsea side tipped for the Premier League title. Manchester City have been poor in the league this year, but can they get a win in London, it could set course for a better period.