English Premier League 20-21: Prediction of who will finish in the top four

The phrase “that’s why they play the game” has never been any more valid in an English Premier League (EPL) season than the one we are witnessing now.

Asides from Manchester City, who are seemingly looking like they might not lose another game this season, multiple contenders have a chance at finishing in the top four.

Manchester United, Leicester, Chelsea, West Ham, Liverpool, Everton, and Tottenham all have a realistic shot at earning an automatic bid to next year’s Champions League tournament,  and that’s not even mentioning Aston Villa, who sits with 39 points and have two games in hand.

As the table stands, just nine points separate eighth-place Tottenham (42) and second-place Man United (51) —while Jose Mourinho and his side are only four points out of fourth place.

In this slideshow, we will take a look at all the potential qualifiers to finish in the top four of the table and determine where they will end up in the standings once everything is said and done using their expected goals (XG) and expected goals against (XGA) difference.

The question for Manchester City fans is not if they will win a title, but how soon can they clinch it. They are 14 points clear at the top of the table and have shown no signs of slowing down.

The Cityzens control an average of 65% possession in all of their games and have yet to drop a single point since December 15th of last year. What makes Machester City so spectacular this season has been their ability to defend. Man City has only conceded three goals in 2021 so far.

Remaining Fixtures

[H] Manchester United
[H] Southhampton
[A] Fulham
[A] Leicester
[H] Leeds
[A] Aston Villa
[H] Crystal Palace
[H] Chelsea
[A] Newcastle
[A] Brighton
[H] Everton

Projected points

Manchester City has the highest XG and XGA difference in the EPL at 1.17. However, due to the remaining fixtures in their season, we expect their undefeated run to eventually end. They will end their championship campaign with 89 points.

Manchester United supporters will likely look back on this season as a missed opportunity at earning their 21st league title.

Whether they had a legitimate chance or not can remain a debate, but what cannot be argued is that since they were top of the table in late January, they have won just two of their last eight matches.

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The Red Devils will have trouble getting out of their current slump. Half of their remaining matches are against teams in the top half of the table, including a run-in with Manchester City on Sunday for the Manchester derby.

Remaining Fixtures

[A] Manchester City
[H] West Ham
[H] Brighton
[A] Tottenham
[H] Burnley
[A] Leeds
[H] Liverpool
[A] Aston Villa
[H] Leicester
[H] Fulham
[A] Wolves

Projected points

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and his men have the fourth-best XG and XGA difference out of the eight teams who have a chance to finish in the top four at 0.52.

With the remaining of their schedule being the toughest stretch of the year, Man United will continue to drop points.

They picked up enough positive results early on in the year to remain eligible for an automatic Champions League bid, but just barely.

We expect the Red Devils to finish fourth in the standings with 71 points.

Leicester City’s success is dependent on two players, James Maddison and Jamie Vardy.

The two of them have scored or assisted on nearly 70% of the 43 goals Leicester has scored this season.

If those two can continue their form, then Leicester City will be able to maintain their third-place position, but a few bad performances and they will be in store for another late-season collapse.

Remaining fixtures

[A] Brighton
[H] Sheffield United
[H] Manchester City
[A] West Ham
[H] West Brom
[H] Crystal Palace
[A] Southampton
[H] Newcastle
[A] Manchester United
[A] Chelsea
[H] Tottenham

Projected points

Similar to Manchester United, Leicester City will have their final games full of teams in the top half of the division, including Manchester United, Chelsea, and Tottenham in their final three fixtures.

Unfortunately for the Foxes, this will result in a sixth-place finish and another year in the Europa League.

Their 0.2 XG and XGA difference will not hold up compared to the rest of the teams in the top four race. We expect them to finish with 67 points.

Asides from Manchester City, Chelsea FC, looks to be the team to beat for the remainder of the EPL season, credited to their mid-season signing — Tomas Tuchel.

Since hiring the former PSG boss, the Blues are yet to lose a game and have gone from ninth place in the EPL standings to fourth.

Remaining fixtures

[H] Everton
[A] Leeds
[H] West Brom
[A] Crystal Palace
[H] Brighton
[A] West Ham
[H] Fulham
[A] Manchester City
[H] Arsenal
[H] Leicester
[A] Aston Villa

Projected points

With Mason Mount reaching new heights and them being nearly unbreakable in the defensive third, the Blues will withstand the upcoming challenges in their schedule.

Chelsea has a current 0.66 XG and XGA difference. We expect them to finish as runner-ups in the league with 74 points.

If you look at Everton’s match results this season, you will notice one thing — inconsistency.

They started the year off great, then fell off, then started to win some games, fell off once more, and are now on a current three-game winning streak.

However, unfortunately for the Toffees, they are likely to continue their pattern of results, meaning they will end the year with a string of bad results.

Of their eleven remaining games, seven of them come against teams in the table’s top half.

Remaining fixtures

[A] Chelsea
[H] Burnley
[H] Crystal Palace
[A] Brighton
[H] Tottenham
[A] Arsenal
[H] Aston Villa
[A] West Ham
[H] Sheffield United
[H] Wolves
[A] Manchester City
[A] Aston Villa

Projected points

Everton has the worst  XG and XGA difference out of the eight teams competing for a final four position at -0.12.

This will result in Carlo Ancelotti’s side finishing in eighth place in the league standings with a projected 61 points.

West Ham United is certainly not the most exciting team in the league to watch, but David Moyes has his side in a position to make the top four for the first time since the 1985-86 season.

The Hammers’ success this season can be credited to one man, Tomáš Souček.

The Czech Republic international is the leader of the midfield and is his team’s leading goalscorer with eight. He has been selected twice for the FIFA 21 Team of the Week to show for it.

If West Ham United is to make the top four this season, they will find out real soon if it is a real possibility. They face off against both Manchester teams in the next three weeks.

Remaining fixtures

[H] Leeds
[A] Manchester United
[H] Arsenal
[A] Wolves
[H] Leicester

[A] Newcastle
[H] Chelsea
[A] Burnley
[H] Everton
[A] Brighton
[A] West Brom
[H] Southampton

Projected points

West Ham United has an XG and XGA difference of 0.24 and will likely finish at their current position of sixth place, with a final point total of 64.

Oh, Liverpool. They have now lost five consecutive games on their home pitch.

The Reds’ ability to defend their title was crushed early in the season when they lost Virgil Van Dijk to an ACL injury.

However,  the issues recently have not been solely due to defensive errors but because of the lack of form out of their front-three. Liverpool has gone over nine hours without scoring an in-play goal at Anfield.

However, with all that being said, Liverpool’s struggles are likely to turn around. They have the easiest remaining schedule out of every other team battling for a top-four position.

The Reds will only face three teams in the top half of the table for the rest of the 20-21 season.

Remaining fixtures

[H] Fulham
[A] Wolves
[A] Arsenal
[H] Aston Villa
[A] Leeds
[H] Newcastle
[A] Manchester United
[H] Southampton
[A] West Brom
[A] Burnley
[H] Crystal Palace

Projected points

Liverpool has the third-highest  XG and XGA difference at 0.64. With that and their favorable schedule, Jurgen Klopp and his men will be able to overcome their bad luck with injuries and recent misfortunes in front of the goal to finish in third place on the EPL table.

We expect the Reds to end the season with a final point total of 72.

Similar to José Mourinho’s recent coaching gigs, Tottenham started well but fell off late.

The Hotspurs’ “park the bus” defensive strategy and then trust in Harry Kane and Son Heung-min’s to score on the counter-attack quickly regressed to the mean after going their first nine EPL matches without a loss.

Remaining fixtures

[H] Crystal Palace
[A] Arsenal
[A] Aston Villa
[A] Newcastle
[H] Manchester United
[A] Everton
[H] Sheffield United
[A] Leeds
[H] Wolves
[H] Aston Villa
[A] Leicester
[H] Southampton

Projected points

Tottenham has a fairly favorable schedule moving forward, but they simply do not have the talent to take advantage of it.

The Hotspurs have a 0.09 XG and XGA difference, where their XGA is as high as 1.22. That is quite surprising given the style of player Mourinho prefers to play.

We expect them to remain in seventh position and finish with a total of 63 points.

Summary of Top Four Predictions

Below is a table recapping the final predictions for all eight team mentioned, along with their final point projections and their XG and XGA:

Do you agree or disagree with our current top four predictions? Let us know in the comment section.