Avoiding the Drop: Predicting the Premier League Relegation Battle
17th-placed Watford (27 pts, -17)
Fixtures: LEI (H), BUR (A), SOU (H), CHE (A), NOR (H), NEW (H), WHU (A), MNC (H), ARS (A)
Watford has shown marked improvement under Nigel Pearson, including handing Liverpool their only defeat of the season. With Troy Deeney’s experience leading the way, and a relatively favourable fixture list, the Hornets should be able to avoid the drop.
The stretch of games against Norwich, Newcastle and West Ham presents a great opportunity to claim three wins, and nine points over the course of the last nine games should be enough to secure safety.
Predictions: L – D – W – L – W – W – D – L – L, 38 pts
16th-placed West Ham (27 pts, -15)
Fixtures: WOL (H), TOT (A), CHE (H), NEW (A), BUR (H), NOR (A), WAT (H), MUN (A), AVL (H)
West Ham is the classic “too good to go down” team. With genuinely talented players such as Declan Rice, they should survive, but there is an inherent brittleness to the team.
Defensive woes have plagued the side, with only Norwich, Villa and Southampton having conceded more goals, and the Saints are only up there due to the 9-0 aberration against Leicester.
I have a sneaking suspicion that West Ham will not be able to score enough to get themselves out of the holes their defence will dig for them, especially since Sebastien Haller, their top scorer, only has seven Premier League goals this season.
A tough first three fixtures could see them playing catch-up, and for a team looking bereft of confidence before the break, that could be deadly. Their shoddy defence could be their undoing, leading to David Moyes’ second relegation of his managerial career.