Manchester City will not retain their Premier League title this season. Their advanced statistics explain how and why they got derailed.
At the pause of play, Pep Guardiola‘s club sat in second in the table and 25 points away from the league leaders, Liverpool. Last week, I wrote a column about the four teams that missed expectations the most based on advanced analytics.
In that post, City came out in fifth. The ranking was based on the team’s ability to convert goal chances, to stop opponents scoring opportunities, and to earn points above or below what was expected in each match.
MCFC led the Top Flight in expected goals (xG) with 73.08 and goals with 68. However, their goal conversion rate of -5.08 was 11th in the league. City led in expected goals against (xGA) with 27.87, however, they are fifth in goals conceded at 31.
Their defensive goal conversion rate (-3.13) was 17th. It is essential to look at the reigning champs’ analytics to see how they got knocked sideways like a car in a high-speed chase.
Manchester City had a run in their previous two seasons, earning 100 and 98 points, respectively, that was unprecedented and may never be equaled. Yet, even if this season resumed and they won all their remaining matches, they would end up with 87 points.
Most clubs would give anything, and I mean anything, to pick up that many points. For MCFC, earning that many points is a significant drop-off.