Premier League: Four Teams Who Missed Expectations

LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 25: Mateo Kovacic of Chelsea after Robert Lewandowski of Bayern Munich scores a goal to make it 3-0 during the UEFA Champions League round of 16 first leg match between Chelsea FC and FC Bayern Muenchen at Stamford Bridge on February 25, 2020 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Robin Jones/Getty Images) /

2 of 5

4. Watford

The Hornets have fought against the drop all season. At the break in play, they were in 17th place and outside of football purgatory known as relegation, only on goal differential. The highlight of their season was their shock win against league leaders Liverpool.

Watford’s most significant weakness has been converting goal chances. They have an xG of 37.15, which is 13th in the Premier League. However, they have scored 27 goals in 29 league matches. Their offensive goal conversion rate of -10.15 is the worst in the league.

Nigel Pearson‘s squad has only two players that have a positive goal conversion rate. Watford’s top four goal scorers, Troy Deeney, Ismaila Sarr, Gerard Deulofeu, and Abdoulaye Doucouré, all have negative goal conversion rates.

On defense, the Hornets boast the 12th ranked expected goals against in the Top Flight. Their defensive goal conversion rate is +0.24, which is 15th in the league.

However, they allowed opposing offenses an expected goals per shot on target of 0.34 (PSxG/SoT), third-worst in the league. This ranking suggests that their defense allowed too many quality shots on goal.

Watford is also the worst in the EPL at turning expected points (xPTS) into actual points. Based on their xG and expected goals against (xGA) in each match, their total xPTS was 37.55, however, they have only earned 27 points.

If they were able to convert some of those expected points into real points, then they would be well out of the relegation zone.

Home/Premier League