Some Premier League clubs have exceeded expectations, and some have missed the mark. Four teams stand out as missing expectations.
Last week I wrote about four EPL clubs who exceeded expectations by using mostly advanced analytics. A few days after, I penned a column explicitly about Sheffield United, who has exceeded expectations, but not as much as the four clubs that were originally featured.
Teams that significantly missed “expected” goals, goals against, and points have shown an ability to create scoring chances, to avoid giving up goals, and to earn additional vital points. The issue with these clubs is that they did poorly at taking advantage of those opportunities.
The Premier League has completed over 70% of its initially scheduled games. It is unlikely, at this point, there will be any regressing or progressing to the mean by any clubs.
Before jumping into the four clubs who were way off their expected targets, an honorable mention goes to Manchester City. The defending champions deserve a column regarding how they have missed expectations this season (hint, hint), so I will be brief.
City, in this ranking, finished fifth on the list, not far from fourth. They have scored the most goals in the league (68), however, their expected goals are at 73.08, making their offensive goal conversion rate -5.08. This puts them 10th in the Top Flight in this category.
Manchester City ranks 17th in defensive goal conversion rate at -3.13 and 11th in converting expected points into actual points in the Premier League.