Premier League: Four Teams That Exceeded Expectations

2. Leicester City

In the Foxes first 17 league matches, they won 12, drew three, and lost only two. During this run, they had an eight-match game winning streak where they only gave up three goals.

Brendan Rodgers’ club also had a goal differential of +29, highest in the Premier League. In most seasons, this type of start would have landed a club at the top of the table.

Not this year

The end result of Leicester’s opening four months was to sit second in the table and ten points behind the runaway speed train that was Liverpool.

Leicester City’s festive season was filled with stockings full of coal and re-gifted fruitcakes. They lost badly to Manchester City and Liverpool, which precipitated a lengthy dip in confidence and form.

The Foxes won only four of their next 10 matches before the season was paused, which landed them third in the table, 29 points off first. The key to their success has been their ability to finish goal opportunities clinically and to also stop their opponents from converting theirs.

Per FBref.com, Leicester is third and fifth in the Premier League in goal creating actions per game and shot-creating actions per game suggesting a lively offensive attack. The result of their strategy with the ball has led to an offensive goal conversion rate of -10.23, which is the best in The Top Flight.

The Foxes have conceded the third-lowest number of goals in the league. Their xGA is 37.43, with an opposition goal conversion rate of +9.43, which is seventh and fourth-best in the Premier League, respectively.

Being near the top of the league in offensive goal conversion rate and opposition goal conversion rate leads to Brendan Rodger’s club being fourth-best in the Premier League in points over expected points with a rate of 5.34.