Premier League: Leicester City’s Downward Spiral Explained

By Keith Lisenbee | Feb 25, 2020

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - JANUARY 28: Ben Chilwell of Leicester City encourages the crowd during the Carabao Cup Semi Final match between Aston Villa and Leicester City at Villa Park on January 28, 2020 in Birmingham, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images) /

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Brendan Rodger’s club has seen their ability to convert goal opportunities and stop opponents from converting their goal chances fall significantly during this downward spiral as well.

Expected/Actual Goal Scored Differential:

First 17 matches: -11.2
Last 11 matches: +0.36
Change: -11.38

Expected/Actual Goals Against Differential:

First 17 matches: +6.79
Last 11 matches: +1.85
Change: -4.96

Expected/Actual Points Differential:

First 17 matches: -9.41
Last 11 matches: +2.55
Change: -11.96

The Foxes’ ability to convert expected goals into actual goals through clinical finishing has diminished tremendously and it’s not just Jamie Vardy, it’s the whole team. Their ability to keep opponents from scoring their opportunities is also on a downward trajectory leading to their potential of earning points in matches to drop as well.

It should be noted that Leicester’s differentials in these areas are within +/- 2.0, suggesting their abilities in each area have gone from significantly over what would be expected, to closer to what would be expected. This is known as regression.

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