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Premier League: Leicester City’s Downward Spiral Explained

By Keith Lisenbee

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - JANUARY 28: Ben Chilwell of Leicester City encourages the crowd during the Carabao Cup Semi Final match between Aston Villa and Leicester City at Villa Park on January 28, 2020 in Birmingham, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - JANUARY 28: Ben Chilwell of Leicester City encourages the crowd during the Carabao Cup Semi Final match between Aston Villa and Leicester City at Villa Park on January 28, 2020 in Birmingham, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images) /
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In almost all categories Leicester City’s performance has dropped significantly.

These statistics show the Foxes performance before this current downhill run to their first four months of the season:

Expected Goals Per Match:

  • First 17 matches: 1.69
  • Last 11 matches: 1.40
  • Change: -0.29

Expected Goals Against Per Match:

  • First 17 matches: 1.05
  • Last 11 matches: 1.71
  • Change: +0.66

Expected Points Per Match:

  • First 17 matches: 1.74
  • Last 11 matches: 1.32
  • Change: -0.42

These numbers suggest that during Leicester’s poor run of form, both their offensive and defensive performance have fallen significantly. The offense is creating fewer chances and the defense is giving up more chances.

As a result, there has been an increased likelihood of the club dropping points. In contrast, Manchester City’s differences in performance between the same time period are as follows:

  • Expected Goals per Match: -0.50
  • Expected Goals Against per Match: -0.18
  • Expected Points Per Match: +0.01

In other words, the defending champions have had their offensive opportunities diminished, but their defense has improved resulting in minimal change in expected match results.

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