The Top Flight
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Liverpool’s Unbeaten Premier League Run: Inside the Numbers

By Keith Lisenbee

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 29: Sadio Mane of Liverpool celebrates with Virgil van Dijk of Liverpool and Jordan Henderson of Liverpool after scoring his sides first goal during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Wolverhampton Wanderers at Anfield on December 29, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 29: Sadio Mane of Liverpool celebrates with Virgil van Dijk of Liverpool and Jordan Henderson of Liverpool after scoring his sides first goal during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Wolverhampton Wanderers at Anfield on December 29, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images) /
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NORWICH, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 15: Jurgen Klopp, Manager of Liverpool looks on before the Premier League match between Norwich City and Liverpool FC at Carrow Road on February 15, 2020 in Norwich, United Kingdom. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
NORWICH, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 15: Jurgen Klopp, Manager of Liverpool looks on before the Premier League match between Norwich City and Liverpool FC at Carrow Road on February 15, 2020 in Norwich, United Kingdom. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images) /

Liverpool has quite clearly been dominant in important statistics.

Per FBref.com, Liverpool’s post-shot xG per shot on target (PSxG/SoT), which is a defensive statistic that shows the level of difficulty of opponent’s shots on their own goal-keeper, is 0.26. In other words, Liverpool’s number indicates their opponent’s average expected goals on a shot on target. This is the lowest in the league, which strongly suggests that not only is Alisson the Premier League’s best goal-keeper, he also has the best defense in front of him.

Expected points (xPTS) is based on analyzing in each match the xG opportunities of both teams and coming up with the probability of how many points each will earn through thousands of simulations. So, if one team has a significant xG advantage over their opponent, then their xPTS for that match will be closer to 3, but not completely three.

For example, Liverpool had an xG advantage of 2.06 to 0.38 in their last match against Norwich (a 1-0 win). As a result, the Reds xPTS in the match was 2.68. It has been suggested that the comparison of xPTS and actual points is an indicator of how lucky a team is or is not. I believe that this could be the case on a game by game basis. However, when the sample size gets larger then patterns begin to solidify and clarify.

The Reds xPTS this season is 55.12 and their actual points total is 76. The difference between the two is +20.88. Two thirds of the Premier League season is completed so this wide differential can not be attributed to only chance. This shows that Klopp’s charges have developed a knack of pulling out games that are close, which requires mental and physical skill over time.

The Premier League leaders differential in this category is not only the best in The Top Flight, it is better than anyone in the Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, and Serie A. The only teams other than Liverpool in the top 5 leagues that in positive double digits in points differential between xPTS and actual points are: Lazio, Juventus, Marseille, and Newcastle United.

It’s for this reason that I am predicting that Liverpool will lift another Champions League trophy this season.

I know. The Reds just lost to Atletico Madrid in the first leg of their round of 16 UCL tie in Madrid. The second leg is at Anfield. I am not worried. I am sticking with my call.

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Liverpool is an incredible team having a truly incredible season. Their statistics, no matter how deep they go, show no major weaknesses, no Death Star flaws, and no potential tipping points. Their advanced statistics show above-average strengths in all areas of play on the pitch (offense, defense, in goal etc.). They have essentially won the Premier League and now an undefeated season in the league is also within reach. The numbers don’t lie.

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