The Top Flight
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Liverpool’s Unbeaten Premier League Run: Inside the Numbers

By Keith Lisenbee

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 29: Sadio Mane of Liverpool celebrates with Virgil van Dijk of Liverpool and Jordan Henderson of Liverpool after scoring his sides first goal during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Wolverhampton Wanderers at Anfield on December 29, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 29: Sadio Mane of Liverpool celebrates with Virgil van Dijk of Liverpool and Jordan Henderson of Liverpool after scoring his sides first goal during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Wolverhampton Wanderers at Anfield on December 29, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images) /
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WOLVERHAMPTON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 23: Joe Gomez of Liverpool looks on during the Premier League match between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Liverpool FC at Molineux on January 23, 2020 in Wolverhampton, United Kingdom. (Photo by Malcolm Couzens/Getty Images)
WOLVERHAMPTON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 23: Joe Gomez of Liverpool looks on during the Premier League match between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Liverpool FC at Molineux on January 23, 2020 in Wolverhampton, United Kingdom. (Photo by Malcolm Couzens/Getty Images) /

Diving into the Deep End

Upon a deeper dive into Liverpool’s statistics, one finds other numbers that may seem insignificant, but further illustrate how they have broken away from the rest of the Premier League when analyzed further.

The statistics described are from understat.com.

As I have stated in a previous column, when a club’s actual goals is higher than their xG, it suggests that in the long term they are consistently clinical when it comes to converting goal opportunities into goals. When a club’s goals against is lower than their xGA, then this indicates that they are consistently able to stop their opponents from converting opportunities into goals in the long term.

26 matches is a long enough sample size to suggest that trends are more based on reality than on luck.

Liverpool is one of the best in the Premier League in converting goal chances into actual goals and stopping their opponents from converting their goal chances. The Reds expected goals is 56.3 and their goal account is 61 goals, which makes their conversion rate +4.7. This is 3rd best in the league.

There are three Reds players who have played over 500 league minutes (16 players) that have a differential between their individual xG and actual over +/- 2.0. Virgil Van Dijk (-2.53), Jordan Henderson (-2.06), and Roberto Firmino (+5.34).

Numbers in the negative note an xG lower than the player’s actual goal count (indicating better clinical finishing on shots) and numbers in the positive show an xG higher than actual goals (indicating poor clinical finishing). Notably, Roberto Firmino’s differential between actual goals and actual is the only Liverpool statistic that I could find that was significantly below average.

LFC’s expected goals against is 24.02, yet they have only conceded 15 goals. The differential is -9.02 goals indicating that they are also excellent at shutting down the opponent’s goal opportunities. This has been accomplished through excellent goal-keeping, blocking shots, and disrupting shots causing them to go awry. In this category, Liverpool is 2nd best in the Premier League.

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