The top 10 finishers in the Premier League based on statistics
There are players who score goals like people eat potato chips – by the bagful. However, who are the very best in the Premier League of converting their goal chances, no matter how small, into actual goals?
One of the fun aspects of the expected goal (xG) revolution is that one can look at how well players and teams convert their goal opportunities into goals. A player or team who has an xG lower than their actual goal count is seen as being more clinical in finishing their chances. Conversely, if a player or team has a higher xG than their goal count, then it is perceived as less clinical at finishing.
Some may state that there is luck involved in how well goal opportunities are converted. I take the approach that in the short term that may be the case. It is possible that factors such as wind, rain, bad pitches, hitting the post, or alien invasions may affect one’s ability to finish goal opportunities.
You may have heard analytics “experts” say that teams or players may “revert to the mean.” This is a fancy way of saying that they expect that over time the xG will come closer to the actual goal count.
For 99.5% of the goal-scoring population, that is true.
Approximately two-thirds of the Premier League season has been completed and there are a number of players that have shown throughout the season a great ability to finish their goal opportunities. I am going to rank the top 10 players in the Premier League who have been the best goal finishers based on xG so far this season.
There are two ground rules. First, the player must have scored at least five Premier League goals. Second, the player must have also played at least 1000 Premier League minutes. As of the start of play on February 16th, 2020, this is a field of 42 players.
Unless otherwise cited, all of the statistics used are from understat.com
Honorable Mention: Virgil Van Dijk, Liverpool
I wanted to put in the world-class game-changing Reds defender on this list to point out another way he is so valuable. He does not meet the criteria for this list because he has four goals this season. However, his xG for the season is a paltry 1.47. The difference between expected and actual goals would have put him 9th in the Premier League. In other words, as the rest of the league already knows, this guy is dangerous anywhere on the field with or without the ball.
10. Richarlison, Everton
The 22-year-old Brazilian is young and brash. His main position is on the left-wing but can play in each position on the front line. He has nine league goals, so far, in his third season in the Premier League with an xG of 6.5. If Everton were in a selling mode (and even if they are not) he is an excellent transfer target for bigger clubs. His market value, per Transfermarkt, is at $66 million. I also like the fact that he has four yellow cards, though some of them are due to making silly choices.
9. Robert Snodgrass, West Ham
In twenty Premier League appearances, the ageing Scot has five goals and four assists at a club that has been a raging, rolling dumpster fire full of medical waste and old dog biscuits. The Hammers are a candidate for relegation, which puts the future for this veteran right-winger in some doubt. He is having one of his better professional seasons and is well on pace of eclipsing his numbers from last season. His xG for the season is a low 2.39, but has five netters, making his conversion rate a solid +2.61.
8. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Arsenal
As a Borussia Dortmund supporter, I can not imagine what it would be like to have this player alongside Erling Haaland and Jadon Sancho on the front line. Oh well, I am allowed to dream, right? This could become a reality for Arsenal fans, that is if the Gunners could actually compete for the top names these days.
Aubameyang is a top level goal scorer and finisher. He has 14 Premier League goals and an xG of 11.36 this season. In 72 league matches in his career, he has 46 goals and an expected goals per 90 minutes of 0.60. The only genuine concern at this point is the fact he will be turning 31 soon, but it appears now that he is better than ever.