Can Frank Lampard get Chelsea back on track in the Premier League?

Chelsea’s hopes for a Champions League spot slipped after another tough loss.  They are dropping points to teams they should beat, which brings the pack of hopefuls closer to their coveted slot.  Can Frank Lampard fix Chelsea before it’s too late?

The scoreboard read at full-time:  Newcastle 1, Chelsea 0.

This does not come close to telling the whole story.

After going scoreless for 93 minutes, the Magpies’ Allan Saint-Maximin sent a looping cross into the penalty box where Issac Hayden headed it past a diving Kepa to score the decisive goal.  The ever-loyal Newcastle crowd in St. James’ Park exploded in pent up angst, fear, and joy.

This still does not tell the whole story.

The statistics were staggering. Frank Lampard‘s Chelsea squad had 70% possession of the ball.  They completed 554 passes (to Newcastle’s 189), 244 passes in Newcastle’s defensive third, and 25 passes in their penalty area. Per understat.com, Chelsea’s expected goals (xG) was 1.81 and the Magpies’ was 0.84. The Blues had nineteen shot attempts with seven on target.

Per understat.com, Newcastle, on average, allowed Chelsea 25.30 passes in their defensive third before making a challenge (PPDA). On the other side of the pitch, Frank Lampard’s club only allowed the Magpies a PPDA of 4.1. Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham had two huge chances in the 71st and 78th minute (the xG on those shots were 0.35 and 0.62 respectively, per understat.com). The first shot went wide left and the second was blocked and cleared.

At the end of the day, Chelsea dropped points in a match they dominated and legitimately should have won. They remained only five points clear of Wolverhampton and Manchester United in the fourth and last Champions League spot missing an opportunity to solidify that lead.

Missed opportunities and hard choices.

This is not the first time Frank Lampard’s club dropped key points to teams that they, given their talent level, should have beaten.  Since December 4th, Chelsea has lost 3-1 at Everton, lost at home to Bournemouth 1-0, been shut out 2-0 at home to Southampton, and drawn one all away at Brighton. The Blues xG for those matches were 1.26, 2.02, 0.86, and 1.57 respectively, according to understat.com. The Blues, per understat.com’s analysis, were the worst in the Premier League in converting expected goals to actual goals over the last six weeks.  For the season, they are 16th in the league in this category.  Chelsea have had multiple opportunities and created numerous chances, but have not consistently converted them to goals and wins.

In the middle of his first season as first-team manager, Frank Lampard faced a difficult choice after the loss to Bournemouth, their second straight shutout loss.  His choices were to make tactical changes to a system that had been working most of the season or to double down on that system in the face of adversity.  It is extremely difficult for any manager, let alone in their first season at a giant club, to not change when things start to falter.  At Chelsea, that pressure is magnified by an owner, Russian Roman Abramovic, who has itchy trigger-fingers to make coaching changes.

https://twitter.com/Miz9Rahman/status/1218599030571200513

Lampard chose to make changes.

Starting with the match against Spurs on December 22nd, Chelsea has put out four different formations:  5-4-1, 3-4-2-1, 4-1-4-1, and 4-3-3 in 6 matches.  For their first 17 matches, the Blues had used only three formations with the 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 set-ups being the most successful in terms of goals and victories.

Chelsea had their infamous transfer ban lifted for the start of the January transfer window. They have yet to bring in a new transfer, though doing so could provide additional depth to their line-up in the midfield and defense as they are still in multiple competitions. They have a $114.7 million “profit” on transfers this season according to Transfermarkt, so there is money available and no handcuffs from the outside. The question is whether the manager will be given the opportunity to shuffle the deck even further.  Doing so with a young club is high risk-high reward, but Lampard might be anxious to make more changes.

This is the moment where we will see what Frank Lampard is made of as a Premier League manager.  This is also the moment where we will see what this young Chelsea squad is made of.

Wolverhampton, Sheffield United, and Manchester United are all within range of stealing that last Champions League spot away.

The road is not easy ahead.  Here are the next five fixtures ahead and my predictions:

Chelsea at Leicester:                       Loss, 2-1

Chelsea vs Manchester United:  Draw, 1-1

Chelsea vs Tottenham:                  Win, 2-0

Chelsea at Bournemouth:            Win, 2-1

Chelsea vs Everton:                         Draw, 2-2

In order to fix what is wrong with Chelsea, Frank Lampard needs to steady himself in order to calm the dressing room. He is starting to act like a manager in trouble by tinkering too much. His team has been inconsistent because of lack of experience, not lack of skill or talent. Younger players need a stable hand to guide them and not multiple changes that create more anxiety than already exists. Lampard would be best served to go back to the formulas that worked – this takes belief in himself and his club.

The result of stabilizing the club should be more confidence, more goals, and more wins.  This will please his boss and the fans. Frank Lampard was never short of confidence as a Chelsea player, but this time he’s wearing a tracksuit and the wolves are coming – literally.