Southampton is the Biggest Threat to Liverpool’s Unbeaten Run
The team that is most likely to snap Liverpool’s unbeaten streak in the Premier League is not Manchester United, not Leicester City, not Chelsea, and not Manchester City. It’s Southampton.
On Saturday, Southampton avenged an ego-destroying 9-0 defeat at the hands of Leicester City, by beating them on their home ground 2-1. Jamie Vardy set up Dennis Praet’s first goal for the club in the 12th minute giving the Foxes a one-goal advantage. Many must have believed that this would start another avalanche of goals.
Just as Kristen Stewart’s A-list career was not meant to be, neither was an easy three points for Brendan Rodgers‘ squad. Five minutes later, the Saints evened the score with a deflected shot by Stuart Armstrong. Danny Ings’ 14th goal of the season, in the 80th minute, turned out to be the game-winner.
In a game where VAR reared its video monitor in the ether more than usual, including taking a Leicester equalizer off the board for offside in the 90th minute, Southampton continued a resurgence that started in November after dropping to a woeful Everton, 2-1 at home.
Prior to dropping that match on November 9th, the Saints had earned eight points in twelve Premier League matches and had not won in nearly two months, including the 9-0 trip to behind an Arkansas prison worksite shed against Leicester. In the Saints last ten league matches, they have earned 20 points and are on a five-match unbeaten streak. Danny Ings has also scored ten goals in those matches and is now tied for second in the Premier League with 14 goals for the season.
What changed?
Several things. Saints manager Ralph Hassenhuttl changed to a 4-4-2 formation, putting Danny Ings alongside another striker rather than in the center of the front line. This also shored up the back-line as well.
Southampton’s expected goals against in their last nine Premier League matches is as follows, per understat.com: 0.75, 1.07, 0.14, 0.86, 0.92, 0.9, 1.1, 0.9, and 0.5. Their combined xGA in that nine-match stretch is second-best in the Premier League, according to understat.com’s analysis. The same analytics also show that the Saint’s expected points in the last ten matches is second highest in the league.
What gives Southampton a shot at beating Liverpool?
Ralph Hassenhuttl’s team faced off against Jurgen Klopp’s charges on August 17th, which resulted in a 2-1 loss. However, it can be argued that this was Liverpool’s toughest test this campaign. The Saints took 14 shots in that match with three being on target.
Danny Ings did not start in this match but came on in the 66th minute and eventually hit Southampton’s sole goal in the 82nd minute. Per understat.com, the Saints expected goals (xG) for the match was 2.14, which is the highest that Liverpool has given up all season and one of only three matches this season where the Reds xG was lower than their opponents.
Southampton’s defense was also stingy in the first match-up. According to the analysis of the match by understat.com, the Saints allowed the Reds, on average, only 12 passes in their defensive zone before a defensive action (PPDA). This suggested that Southampton was assertive in their attempts to stop Liverpool from finding a rhythm in their defensive zone in order to break them down, thus, cutting down on solid chances at goal.
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Southampton is on a solid run of form over the last ten Premier League matches. Danny Ings is now firmly in the starting line-up in a formation that works best for him (he has scored more goals this season than in the previous four seasons – combined). The Saints also gave the Premier League’s first-place team their toughest match this season. This all suggests that the February 1st match-up between Southampton and Liverpool could be the ultimate trap match.