Fantasy Premier League 2019/20 – Fixtures Analysis

The one big issue with the previous table is that it takes no account of how good the team in question actually is.

Last year Huddersfield could have played Fulham every week for 2 months and you still would have hesitated before buying in ANY of their players.

So, as an alternative, here’s the table when you consider the team’s own rating. This is a rough calculation of expected goals scored/conceded each match.

For example, if you wanted to calculate Arsenal’s expected goals scored against Chelsea at the Emirates, you multiply Arsenal’s home attack score (1.41) by Chelsea’s away defence score (0.91) and then multiply that by the average number of goals scored at home (1.57) giving an expected goals of 2.00.

You can do the same for Chelsea to calculate Arsenal’s expected goals conceded (0.85). Then you can sum up these for the period you are interested in and get the table below.

https://twitter.com/WTFPL101/status/1156684369978900480

Of course, this is dominated by the top teams as they score more goals and concede fewer than the other teams, but it does give a good ranking of the potentially cheap options further down the table.