Why Arsenal are Now Favourites for the Europa League – Not Chelsea

Arsenal and Chelsea are both off to the Europa League semi-finals, and it’s possible that we see them face-off in the final itself. However, the Gunners should be the slight favorites from here on out.

When Arsenal were drawn up against Napoli for the Europa League quarter-finals, many expected the Gunners to fall to the Italian side, especially with their ongoing woes away from home. Napoli are the 2nd best team in Italy after all, while Arsenal could definitely be considered the 6th best in England. Despite this, Unai Emery’s team disposed of a woeful Napoli quite comfortably over the 2 legs, even managing to pick up a win at the Stadio San Paolo – a place where neither Liverpool nor PSG could pick up a victory earlier this season in the Champions League. Now, Arsenal will move on to face Valencia in the semi-finals, and will be favorites for the tie, but not by a massive margin. On the other side of the bracket, Arsenal’s London rivals Chelsea will go up against Eintracht Frankfurt, in a tie that might prove difficult for the Blues. Nonetheless, the consensus final is Arsenal vs Chelsea, and while that would be an extremely close fixture, the Gunners have the slightly better chance to win.

While there is one main difference that separates the Arsenal and Chelsea squads on paper, the X-factor Eden Hazard, they are pretty even everywhere else on the pitch. Despite the Blues having some big names in midfield, Arsenal’s midfielders have been in better form all season long. The Gunners also have a big advantage at the top end of the pitch, where Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette are always thirsty for goals, despite having a weaker defense. With these 2, they always have a chance to win and have one of the highest conversion rates in Europe. If you put it simply, they can get goals out of nowhere. This isn’t the case for Chelsea, who lack a top quality striker and work very hard to score their goals. In a one-off final, this could make a significant difference.

Lets also not forget that the last time these teams met, back in the Premier League in January, Arsenal played Chelsea off the park and restricted their chances extremely well in a 2-0 win. Lacazette’s outstanding individual goal was the standout highlight of the day. While Chelsea did triumph over Arsenal in the reverse fixture back in August, it was very difficult to judge the 2 teams as both managers, Emery and Sarri were just starting out in their jobs. Tactically, Arsenal are a slightly more disciplined team than Chelsea are, and they are having a better season, which is somewhat of a surprise considering the amount of money Chelsea spent in the summer.

Arsenal’s manager Unai Emery is also a former 3-time winner of this competition, and is the most successful manager in its history alongside Giovanni Trapattoni. While this doesn’t make a massive difference, it certainly has to be put into consideration.

With both sides currently chasing a Champions League place through the very tight Premier League top 4 race, winning the Europa League may just be a better opportunity. Both will find their semi-final clashes to be quite difficult, as Valencia and Frankfurt are both excellent sides, but both Arsenal and Chelsea are near-even favorites to lift the trophy, with Arsenal having a slight edge.