Euro 2016: Making sense of the third-place qualification

Four of the six Euro 2016 groups will send a third-placed team into the knockout stages, but how does it work?

We’ve grown accustomed to the winners of a group playing a runner-up in the first knockout game. This is how it’s done in the World Cup and has been the same in the European Championship for some time.

Not this year, however. UEFA’s decision to expand the tournament to 24 teams meant more groups, but also more teams reaching the knockout stages. Of the 24 teams involved, 16 make it through, four of which will finish third in their group.

But how does it work? Is it fair? How do we know who plays who?

I would say it’s quite simple, but it’s not. First off let’s look at the basics. Here is the schedule for the Round of 16.

Round of 16:

Runner-up Group A vs. Runner-up Group C
Winner Group D vs. 3rd Group B/E/F
Winner Group B vs. 3rd Group A/C/D
Winner Group F vs. Runner-up Group E
Winner Group C vs. 3rd Group A/B/F
Winner Group E vs. Runner-up Group D
Winner Group A vs. 3rd Group C/D/E
Runner-up Group B vs. Runner-up Group F

So, who do we already know has made it through?

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Fixtures we know:

Switzerland vs. Poland

Croatia vs. 3BEF

Wales vs. 3ACD

Germany vs. 3ABF

Italy vs. Spain

France vs. 3CDE

England vs. Runners-up Group F

Four out of the six third-placed teams makes it through to the Round of 16. This is determined on a number of tiebreakers. First is points scored, then goal difference, goals scored, fair play and finally UEFA team coefficient if all else is equal. This is how it stands entering the final day of group games.

Slovakia (qualified) – 4 points
Northern Ireland (qualified) – 3 points
Turkey – 3 points
Albania – 3 points
Portugal – 2 points*
Sweden – 1 point*

* Portugal and Sweden still have one group game remaining.

So we know Slovakia and Northern Ireland are through. Why? Four teams have completed their group games, and Slovakia have the more points than three of them, meaning they will finish no worse than third of the six third-placed teams. Northern Ireland’s goal difference is better than Turkey and Albania, meaning they will too finish inside the top four.

Portugal will qualify if they avoid defeat. A point would take them to three points, and their goal difference is superior to Turkey and Albania. Sweden must win to qualify.

When we know the four teams who qualify, how do we know who plays who? It’s a very complicated process, but it all depends on which groups send three teams through. The schedule has been made to try and prevent teams in the same group meeting again until the semi-finals. You can find the full table of each scenario here.

But let’s look at an example. Let’s assume Portugal and Sweden both lose their final group games, which means Slovakia (Group B), Northern Ireland (Group C), Turkey (Group D) and Albania (Group A) all qualify.

As the teams would come out of the groups ABCD, Northern Ireland would play France, Turkey would meet Wales, Albania would take on Germany and Slovakia would play Croatia. But that is only if groups A, B, C and D send three teams into the knockout stages.

Next: England: Roy Hodgson isn't ruthless enough

In total, there are 15 different possibilities. We’ll find out how it all plays out on Wednesday.

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