Can Arsenal top the table come May?

In the wake of Arsenal’s poor run of form as of late, compounded by their 0-0 draw at home to Chelsea yesterday, people have once again started to question Arsenal’s pedigree and if they have rightful title credentials this season.  Despite their shock loss opening day against Aston Villa, the Gunners kicked it into another gear which would see them top of the Barclays Premier League for ninety days.  Yesterday’s result see’s them end the year in second place, tied on points with Liverpool but losing out on goal difference.  The question will now be raised again – can Arsenal break their duck and win the league this season?

First let us look at their record this season against the best of what the BPL has to offer.  In a word, that record is quite poor indeed – against Liverpool, United, City, Chelsea and Everton, the Gunners are a woeful 1-2-2, which is a mere 5 points out of a possible 15.  Their only win against their “rivals” coming against Liverpool, while the lost at United and the thrashing by City can only be supported by draws against Everton and Chelsea.  Simply put, these are not title winning results.  To win the BPL, you have to be able to take three points off those who are challenging along side you as come season’s end the title can easily be won and lost by very few points.  It is no shock that Arsenal supporters are in very high voice when it comes to their displeasure with their club ownership and in fact even manager Arsene Wenger viewing fourth place as a trophy the last few seasons.  Granted, that guarantee’s Champions League football and the large amounts of added cash and revenue that they require, but it is certainly time to make a serious challenge for the top – if they want to start such an assault on the league this year, their results against other big clubs will have to drastically improve the second half of the season.

It is no surprise that Wenger’s side have stuttered as of late – this is after all a notoriously difficult time of year.  Over the last month and then some, Arsenal have had fixtures in both the BPL and Champions League hit them thick and fast, which has ruthlessly exposed their lack of depth.  It has been proven time and again that in a top league in Europe, if you want to challenge domestically as well as continental competitions, depth is the key and Arsenal are in short supply.  Not only does depth allow you squad rotation to guarantee fresh legs on the pitch, but it also is an excellent way to stave off an injury bug and everyone knows how susceptible Arsenal are to being hit by injury crisis.  Lack of depth at striker (they only have Olivier Giroud and Lukas Podolski, let us not count either Yaya Sanogo or Nicklas Bendtner as neither of them are good enough to lead the line for a lengthy spell) and center back could spell disaster if personnel in either area are affected as the season progresses.  Rumors that Arsenal are in for either Diego Costa or Christian Benteke in January could solve the problem at striker, but Wenger must look to bring in one center-back as well to provide the proper cover as the season trudges on.

Speaking of strikers, there is the on-going debate on whether Olivier Giroud has enough quality to be the man to lead the Arsenal attack – in the opinion of this die-hard supporter, the answer is no.  For all his quality when it comes to holding up the ball to include others, his ability to provide service through the middle and his strong link-up play, Giroud is not a killer in the box.  Arsenal in the past have had the luxury of being able to call on Ian Wright, Dennis Bergkamp, Thierry Henry and Robin van Persie to lead the line, all of whom were fantastic finishers as well as maintaining the same attributes that Giroud does possess.  His inability to finish off the chances that Arsenal’s creative play carves out for him consistently is the difference right now between Arsenal and clubs like Liverpool and Man City.  Liverpool has Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge while City have Alvaro Negredo, Kun Aguero and Edin Dzeko – simply put, other big clubs have strikers that can single handedly kill a game off, Arsenal does not.  You cannot be expected to win the BPL if you do not have a top class striker and despite the rumors of Diego Costa or Benteke coming to the Emirates, Wenger’s policy on January spending dictates that it is unlikely this season.  Costa will cost upwards of 30million (release clause in his contract) while Benteke will cost almost nearly the same due to the fact that he would be coming from Aston Villa who would not want to see their man leave to a domestic team.  Wenger rarely spends in January and I cannot see him spending that amount of cash halfway through the season.  He has already discussed he will probably not make a move as he feels Bendtner and Sanogo are sufficient, however should Giroud be dealt an injury blow, time will tell if Wenger’s stubbornness will haunt his ambitions yet again.

It is not all doom and gloom for Arsenal’s title hopes – despite the negative aspects of their credentials, they do have quite a few positives to take note of.  Firstly, the purchasing of Mesut Ozil was fantastic for the Gunners.  Ozil is arguably the best pure number 10 in the world (no one in Europe has had more assists than him over the past three or four seasons) and has fit into the Arsenal fabric seamlessly from his first appearance.  He currently leads the BPL in assists and can chip in the odd-goal or two.  His play-making abilities have not been seen at Arsenal since Bergkamp and he will surely be crucial to any title charge down the line.  Not only has Ozil’s play on the pitch lifted Arsenal, but also his signing has given many players in the dressing room a newfound belief in themselves.  Confidence has grown leaps and bounds at the signing of such a high-caliber talent and has made many realize that they are in fact playing for a big club and thus their level has risen accordingly.

The signing of Ozil was a masterstroke, but the re-emergence of Aaron Ramsey is certainly another major catalyst and if not for nothing, the feel good Arsenal story of the season.  Ramsey was once one of the most coveted young British talents available, to the point where even Sir Alex Ferguson sought after his signature.  A horrific injury at the hands of Stoke’s Ryan Shawcross and subsequent abysmal showings after his return left many questioning if Ramsey would ever could good again – he has since proved to everyone that he could come back revitalized.  What you are seeing now in the young Welshman was what everyone expected to see and despite his poor run of form in the last few matches, he has risen ahead of the likes of Jack Wilshere, Tomas Rosicky and Mathieu Flamini in the midfield pecking order – Ramsey has now become an integral part of Arsenal and that is something that will be key going forward.

One of the keys to Arsenal’s early season success (the match against City and Aston Villa not withstanding) has been their strong presence at the back.  Kieran Gibbs has solidified himself as one of the best left backs in the league (and potentially may be going to Brazil this summer according to Roy Hodgson), and Sagna is as solid as ever.  It is however the key partnership between Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker that has transformed Arsenal’s back line into a tough outfit once more.  A combination of center backs that compliment each other perfectly, there is no threat that BFG and Kos the Boss cannot deal with and often times have made room in their back pockets for many a talented striker this season.  With Thomas Vermaelen as first choice replacement to the pair of them the only issue is the lack of depth.  In years past, Arsenal’s Achilles heel has been defensive solidarity and the ability to deal with set pieces properly.  With the introduction of Steve Bould as assistant to Wenger and Mertesacker finding his feet in England, Arsenal once again have the right formula for success at the back.

Level on points with Liverpool atop the table at Christmas is by no means a bad campaign thus far – the question for Arsenal comes if their level of play will be sustainable.  Given issues with their lack of squad depth especially in key areas will be tested time and again if Wenger does not open his check book in January.  They are still in Champions League, as well as the FA Cup – the ability to rest players without the worry of losing quality on the pitch will need to be addressed.  As we have seen over the last few matches, fatigue has been a factor for certain Arsenal players who could not afford to be given a rest due to lack of options behind them (Giroud has been a prime example).  As fatigue sets in, a side’s level of play becomes harder to sustain over a run of matches, especially the style that which Arsenal are known for.  Realistically, Arsenal have a shot at lifting the BPL trophy but that will only be attainable if they have early exists in both Champions League and the FA Cup – that can all change if Le Professor changes his ways (much like the way he did with the Ozil signing) and opens the bank account come January.