Fantasy Premier League for the 2022/2023 season is now just two weeks away from kicking off which means it’s right about that time that managers are looking into pre-season options and populating their GW1 team.
One of the key tenets of success in Fantasy Premier League is to pick a solid Gameweek 1 team. Besides just the benefit of points on the board, there are several other downstream effects of this.
Benefits include being well-placed to benefit from early price rises and thus accrue team value as well as being able to delay the usage of the powerful wildcard chip.
Over 5️⃣0️⃣,0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ of you have used your Triple Captain chip for Gameweek 1... 👀#FPL pic.twitter.com/QNhByVvw4W
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) July 22, 2022
One Key Difference From Other Fantasy Premier League Seasons
This season has one key difference from other FPL seasons – the season breaking after GW16 for the World Cup and FPL granting unlimited transfers or essentially another ‘wildcard’ in this period.
This might bring into play a ‘strategic’ change wherein managers can target GWs1 to 6 or 8 for an early first wildcard knowing that they’ll have another after GW16 and hence, can take advantage of these fixture blocks.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at my Top 5 Forwards to consider for your Gameweek 1 team in the Fantasy Premier League 2022/2023 campaign.
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1) Harry Kane (11.5m, Tottenham)
Opening 6 fixtures: SOU, che, WOL, nfo, whu, FUL
Harry Kane edges out his price-point rival for a spot in my gameweek 1 team. Kane had excellent underlying numbers since Antonio Conte took over.
The biggest advantage for Kane over Haaland, in my eyes, is the assurance of minutes and starts, making him a reliable armband option.
Kane had a npxGI of 0.73 per 90 last season and is still on penalty duty. While he did look like he was playing a bit deeper towards the end of last season, everything Spurs did was going through him and his goal involvement percentage was quite high.
A great gameweek 1 pick.
2) Erling Haaland (11.5m, Manchester City)
Opening 6 fixtures: whu, BOU, new, CRY, NFO, avl
The big Viking has averaged better than 1 goal per 90 minutes in the league across his last 3 seasons combined at Borussia Dortmund – a staggering statistic.
He’s accusing an xG of 0.70 per game across these 3 seasons and has outperformed his xG by 3-4 goals in every single one of these seasons.
The prospect of an elite finisher at this Manchester City juggernaut is terrifying. He might even be on penalties.
The only factor making me rate him lower than Kane is if he goes through an adjustment period by Pep Guardiola, as he often does with new signings, and Haaland had a tendency to miss games with niggles last season.
Still, if Haaland looks good in the last few City games before the start of the season, he’ll be hard to go without.
3) Gabriel Jesus (8.0m, Arsenal)
Opening 6 fixtures: cry, LEI, bou, FUL, AVL, mun
As stated before, the Arsenal fixtures look great on paper and it’s worth looking into their attack. Jesus has looked bright in pre-season, starting as Arsenal’s number 9.
He had a npxGI of 0.70 per 90 last season at Manchester City. Both Lacazette and Eddie Nketiah had very decent xG numbers playing as Arsenals forward, so if Jesus can match or build on those, he should be amazing value at his price.
Three goals in two preseason games for Gabriel Jesus 👊 pic.twitter.com/oAzfmzgrAa
— B/R Football (@brfootball) July 17, 2022
He’s traditionally underperformed his xG but he might even have the additional boost of being on penalties at Arsenal. Priced well and with the fixtures to start brightly, Jesus is the standout from the mid-price forwards in my opinion.
4) Anthony Martial (7.0, Manchester United)
Opening 6 fixtures: BRI, bre, LIV, sou, lei, ARS
Anthony Martial looked like he was on his way out of Manchester United up until a few weeks ago, but the arrival of Erik Ten Hag and Cristiano Ronaldo’s wish to seek a move away from the club have revived him at Old Trafford and as an option in FPL.
Ronaldo still hasn’t returned to pre-season training at the club while Anthony Martial has been playing very well on the clubs’ pre-season tour.
While their opening 6 fixtures are a mixed bag, Martial is priced really well and would be a bargain as a starting centre forward for Manchester United. In his inconsistent game time at the club, Martial has often accrued an encouraging xG per 90 while being a traditionally strong finisher.
Monitor Ronaldo’s pre-season involvement but Martial has a high upside at that price.
5) Patrick Bamford (7.5m, Leeds United)
Opening 6 fixtures: WOL, sou, CHE, bri, EVE, bre
This one’s a bit of a swerving pick but I think factors are aligning to allow Patrick Bamford to be an amazing differential at the start of the season.
Leeds have one of the kindest-looking starts to the season from an attacking perspective while Jesse Marsch has been playing some positive, front-foot football at Leeds.
He had major injury issues all of last season but he showed us what he can do in Leeds’ first campaign after promotion. A 0.79 xGI per 90 from a very small sample last season, likely on penalty duty, Bamford has the tools to start the season very strongly.
Caveats remain on his return to fitness as he’s yet to start a pre-season game for Leeds and how the loss of Raphinha will affect Leeds’ creativity.
But if things fall into place, Bamford could be the ideal differential to make a strong start to FPL 2022/2023.