Which Premier League heavyweight has the strongest attack?

In a trend that’s just been accelerated as football emerges into its post-pandemic state, the traditional ‘big clubs’ in the Premier League have stronger financial clout than most other clubs across Europe.

This combined with the intensity and popularity of the Premier League makes it a hugely attractive option for some of the best talents across the continent, resulting in very exciting-looking attacks on display.

But amongst these traditional heavyweights in the Premier League, how do their respective attacks stack up? Which club has the most potent-looking options on paper and how do they compare to one another?

Expected Goals (xG) is the probability of a given shot resulting in a goal; such that shots under pressure from a distance would have low xG values while chances in the six-yard box under less pressure would have a high xG value.

As two-thirds of the Premier League season has already gone by, we’ll evaluate the top 6 for xG values per 90 minutes thus far this season (taken instead of cumulative xG total due to discrepancy in total games played at this time) per fbref.com

1) Liverpool with 2.44 xG/90 mins in the Premier League

In what might come as a slight surprise to some, Liverpool’s expected goals value per 90 trumps that of Manchester City as the highest in the Premier League.

They’ve been a sustainably strong offensive side for over 3 years now and their attacking numbers are all the more impressive given how relatively little the contribution from midfield is towards it.

While their dependence on Mo Salah and Sadio Mane for goals is no secret, the offense is more balanced with quality cover — the best it’s ever been under Jurgen Klopp.

Mo Salah is an absolutely incredible footballer. Very few in the world can boast his tremendous end product coupled with durability and consistency through his entire Liverpool career.

He’s their first choice right-winger in their standard 4-3-3 and can also play as the furthest forward striker in a 4-2-3-1 as he’s done in the past.

Sadio Mane at least matched if not outdid Salah in his performances in his first 3 years at the club and while he remains an excellent goalscoring left winger, his level has begun to drop from his own previous lofty standards.

Roberto Firmino is a crucial false-9 forward to make the system tick and provides the room for the goalscoring inside-wingers to run into. He’s played False-9 in a 4-3-3 and can also play as a #10 in a more traditional 4-2-3-1.

Diogo Jota has proven to be a terrific piece of scouting by Liverpool as he fits like a glove in their system. He is fairly ambipedal meaning he can play across the entire front line — as a winger or striker.

Luis Diaz is an important and astute winter signing for Liverpool. The predominantly right-footed 25-year-old left-winger has enjoyed a strong goalscoring season and is a quality backup and the likely succession plan for Sadio Mane on the left flank.

Additionally, Divock Origi can play as a more traditional center forward and has chipped in with some massive goals off the bench. Minamino can play across the entire front line as cover while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain can also cover a winger’s role in times of need.

Thus Liverpool now possesses fairly good depth in numbers and quality, have the right blend of age-profile and the versatility of players to play 4-3-3, with and without a false 9, as well as a 4-2-3-1 with ease.

2) Manchester City with 2.32 xG/90 mins

Manchester City under Pep Guardiola are a well-oiled machine and possibly one of the strongest attacks in all of Europe with their quality and strength in depth.

Their expected goals tally being second in the league is partly explained by their ability to score early and then ease off and comfortably keep possession to see out games. Despite a public and eventually unsuccessful attempt to bring in Harry Kane in the summer, their attack looks well stocked.

Gabriel Jesus, Brazil’s number 9 and a hard-working player has been used as a central striker as well as coming in off the right-wing by Pep this season.

Phil Foden is an immense talent and can play on both flanks as well as the almost 8-and-a-half center-forward role in Pep’s system.

Riyad Mahrez is an absolute treat to watch with his silky dribbling, ball control and talent. His skillset means he’s primarily used on the right-wing only.

Bernardo Silva is another magician with the ball at his feet and plays either in a central midfield role or right-wing in games where Pep prefers his work ethic and technical ability to control the game.

Raheem Sterling is City’s most prolific goalscorer and yet likely not in their first-choice XI, such are the abundance of riches at this City side. He often plays on the right-wing and occasionally can play as a central striker.

Jack Grealish, the 100 million pound summer signing has endured a challenging transition but has most often held down the right-wing spot when he plays.

Kevin De Bruyne has arguably been the best central attacking midfielder in world football over the past few years and is usually entrusted with playing as false-9 in big games while being able to operate as #10 in the rare events that City use a 4-2-3-1 setup.

Thus, it’s clear from the description above that Manchester City often play a fluid attacking system that’s almost always some variation of a 4-3-3. Given the vast number and quality of attackers at their disposal, they can line up in innumerable different ways within that formation and are likely the least hampered when an attacker picks up an injury for this reason.

3) Chelsea with a 1.70 xG per 90 mins

There’s a clear gulf in expected goals between the top 2 and the rest of the Premier League clubs. Next up are the current Champions of the world, Chelsea. Surprisingly though, despite their Champions League win, the Chelsea attack remains one very much in transition that still hasn’t found its optimal setup.

Romelu Lukaku, signed for a huge sum this summer, was hoped to be the solution to the striker problem that’s plagued the club so often for a long time now. Sadly, the Belgian has made a slow start to life in West London and some untimely media comments haven’t helped his case. He’s still their best center-forward option on paper.

Kai Havertz has written his name in Chelsea history with winning goals in the Champions League as well as Club World Cup finals. The Chelsea attack in general were looking more fluid last year playing off Havertz as the false-9 in their usual 3-4-3 setup. But his starts this season have been more often on the right of the front 3, playing alongside Lukaku.

Mason Mount, Chelsea’s most consistent attacking player is almost always deployed on the flank in the 3-4-3 setup and his versatility is key to allowing tactical flexibility to their starting system. Mount is able to drop deeper forming almost a 3-4-1-2 or 3-5-2 when needed and also is able to play as #8 in central midfield in a 4-3-3 — which Chelsea have resorted to using of late.

Hakim Ziyech is brilliant but mercurial with a wand of a left foot and always plays as an inverted right winger in either setup.

Timo Werner has endured a difficult time since his move to the London club and has been a substitute for more games than he’s started this season. His pace and off-the-ball work mean he’s best suited to play as an inside left-winger in the 3-4-3 setup and has sometimes been played off Lukaku in a 3-5-2.

Callum Hudson-Odoi has had a good Premier League run and brings creativity with elite ball-carrying ability to the table. He’s started a fairly high percentage of games this season and is either on the left flank or occasionally covering at wing-back.

Christian Pulisic has been troubled with injuries for large parts of the season and can play both wings as well as wing-back if needed. For Tuchel’s 3-4-3 system which worked so well for him, the dynamism of the wing-backs was key.

Unfortunate injuries to both, Ben Chilwell (out for the season) and Reece James (2 months out), simultaneously coupled with the lack of similarly adept cover in those positions, means the manager has had to try a host of different front-three combinations.

He has recently moved to a 4-3-3 to provide better balance. While Chelsea have impressive numbers in their offensive unit, they’ve found it hard to find their best system.

4) Tottenham Hotspur with 1.57 xG per 90 in the Premier League

Spurs lead the hot 4th-place race in terms of their expected goals. Conte tends to prefer lining up with 3 at the back, making their attack more predictable in selection than most on this list.

Harry Kane is an elite center forward and one of the best in the world. In either variation of a 3-4-3 or 3-5-2, the Englishman will lead the line for Spurs.

Heung-Min Son is rapid, ambipedal and a top-class finisher. Another regular starter, he starts off the left in a 3 man attack or as the second striker alongside Harry Kane in a 3-5-2, making runs off him.

Lucas Moura, Steven Bergwijn and Dejan Kulusevski are all good attacking options for the right-wing spot in Conte’s 3-4-3, but none are of the level to likely displace Son or Kane from the team when fit. Kulusevski can also play wing-back and hold the width should the situation demand it.

Key areas Conte will be looking to in the summer will be a backup for Harry Kane at center forward, as well as adding a quality playmaker who can play #10 in his system, thus adding the option to go 3-4-1-2 and utilize the best of Son’s pace and finishing ability.

5) Manchester United with 1.50 xG per 90 mins

The one surprise on this list, in my opinion, given the quality of their summer dealings on paper. Manchester United have struggled in attack and defense this Premier League Campaign. Solskjaer paid the price for their regression in performances compared to last season but even Rangnick hasn’t managed to turn them around quite yet — though they’re showing some signs of coming to life.

Cristiano Ronaldo made a frenzied return to the club during the summer and despite his age and some discussion about his style possibly hindering their overall balance, he’s scored crucial goals for them in Europe. Despite a dip in his finishing he’s been consistently getting into high-quality scoring areas. At this stage in his career, he’s well and truly a striker.

Jadon Sancho ended a year-long saga by joining United in the summer to address their weakness at right-wing. It’s fair to say he’s struggled since his move but his performances of late have been encouraging and he’s still very young.

He’s been signed to sole the right-wing issue but did have his best goal output playing left wing for Dortmund last season and that’s where he’s often been played by manager Ralf Rangnick.

Marcus Rashford has pace to burn and he’s been deemed better suited to a winger than a striker role. He can operate on both wings either stretching the place with pace on the right or cutting in on his favored right foot off the left wing.

Edinson Cavani possesses a good footballing mind and elite movement off the ball but has struggled with his fitness. A good backup option at center forward.

Bruno Fernandes is the most consistent attacker at the club since his signing and while he played as an offensive #10 under Solskjaer, he plays as a slightly deeper #8 in Rangnicks 4-3-3, still making plenty of runs into the half-spaces and in the box.

Anthony Elanga, the 19-year-old Swede, adds depth and competition to the wing positions.

A loan exit for Anthony Martial and an aging Juan Mata means United’s depth for their attacking positions is looking thin. The addition of a young center-forward will be high up on their agenda this summer and potentially even a winger pending how the Diallo loan goes.

United look to have settled on a 4-3-3 at the moment but have played 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-2-2 at different times this season and still possesses the personnel to play all 3 systems.

6) Arsenal with 1.49 xG per 90 mins in the Premier League

Arteta’s Arsenal come in neck-and-neck with Leicester City and ahead of high-fliers West Ham. Despite a slow start to the season and exiling Aubameyang, Arsenal’s performances have grown from strength to strength this season. Arteta’s young attack has looked impressive in recent weeks, playing primarily a 4-3-3 setup.

Lacazette has taken over center forward duties after the problems between the manager and Aubameyang, performing well in his role. He’s dropped deep to link up play well and has allowed those around him to flourish.

With his contract expiring in the summer and Nketiah expressing his desire to leave, Arsenal will be in the market for a top striker this summer, irrespective of if they convince one of them to sign on.

Gabriel Martinelli has made the left-wing role his own with some strong goalscoring performances coming in off that flank.

Bukayo Saka is a tremendously talented young winger with the ability to play on both the right and left wings and if necessary and has the work ethic to play wing-back too. He’s cemented his role as a starter on the right-wing.

Martin Odegaard often plays as an offensive #8 in the 4-3-3 system and pulls the strings. His playmaking ability is key to making their attack tick.

Emile Smith-Rowe has had a very impressive goalscoring season. He can play coming in off both flanks as well as the #10 role, making the youngster an important part of the Arsenal attacking unit now and a likely starter in the future.

Nicolas Pepe, the big-money signing for Arsenal, has been inconsistent in front of goal. He’s strongly left-footed and thus is limited to playing as a right-winger where he finds himself behind Saka in the pecking order.

Thus, Arsenal have a young attack that is looking better with every passing game. They’ll be a force in the battle for Top 4 this season in the Premier League, given the upward trend of their performances. Their attackers allow the team to line up in different setups within the 4-3-3 but also as a 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-3 when needed.