English Premier League 20-21: Prediction of who will finish in the top four

Premier League club, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal (Photo by Visionhaus)
Premier League club, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal (Photo by Visionhaus) /
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Gareth Bale of Tottenham Hotspurs
Gareth Bale of Tottenham Hotspurs (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images) /

Similar to José Mourinho’s recent coaching gigs, Tottenham started well but fell off late.

The Hotspurs’ “park the bus” defensive strategy and then trust in Harry Kane and Son Heung-min’s to score on the counter-attack quickly regressed to the mean after going their first nine EPL matches without a loss.

Remaining fixtures

[H] Crystal Palace
[A] Arsenal
[A] Aston Villa
[A] Newcastle
[H] Manchester United
[A] Everton
[H] Sheffield United
[A] Leeds
[H] Wolves
[H] Aston Villa
[A] Leicester
[H] Southampton

Projected points

Tottenham has a fairly favorable schedule moving forward, but they simply do not have the talent to take advantage of it.

The Hotspurs have a 0.09 XG and XGA difference, where their XGA is as high as 1.22. That is quite surprising given the style of player Mourinho prefers to play.

We expect them to remain in seventh position and finish with a total of 63 points.

Summary of Top Four Predictions

Below is a table recapping the final predictions for all eight team mentioned, along with their final point projections and their XG and XGA:

EPL-project-top-four
EPL-project-top-four /

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Do you agree or disagree with our current top four predictions? Let us know in the comment section.