Premier League: Everton’s bold move to hire Ancelotti has paid off

Everton are now in a strong position to end the season on a high note.

As a result of their current form, a team that was in the relegation zone two months ago now is sitting in seventh. Everton is also three points from fifth and five points from the last Champions League slot held by a meandering Chelsea.

Everton’s bold plan to be a truly bigger club by hiring a big club manager has paid off.

The analytical comparison of the club before and after Ancelotti’s hiring is stark. Per understat.com, Everton was 17th (out of 20) in the Premier League in converting goals from expected goals prior to the Italian’s start and since that point, they are sixth in the same category. Everton are also third in the Premier League in expected goals since Ancelotti’s in late December.

On defense, improvements have also been made. Per understat.com, prior to Christmas they were 18th in the Premier League in stopping their opponents from converting on goal opportunities, per understat.com. Since Carlo took to the technical area, they have been 11th in that same category.

The new gaffer has had a positive effect on three offensive stalwarts at Goodison Park. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison, and Moise Kean have shown strong offensive production since Christmas. Calvert-Lewin has scored more than half his goals (6) and his expected goals plus expected assists per 90 minutes (xG+xA/90 min) is a stellar 0.82 during this time period, per understat.com. Richarlison and Moise Kean have an xG+xA/90 min of 0.61 and 0.89 respectively since the festive period.

Most important of all, since Christmas, only Liverpool has earned more points and wins than Everton.

Is the dream possible? Can the Blues qualify for Europe?

The next four matches are absolutely huge. Everton is on a “winter break” so their next league match is away at Arsenal. This is followed by one match a week with Manchester United at Goodison, at Chelsea, and at home against Liverpool. Rumor has it that it’s possible that the Reds could clinch their first Premier League title in a generation in the second Merseyside derby. There are points available for the Toffees in all these matches.

Yes, I said it.

Everton can beat Arsenal, Manchester United, and Chelsea. All three teams are deeply flawed at this juncture. The Gunners have yet to develop a consistent positive form with their new manager, Mikel Arteta. United is hit and miss on a good match day. Chelsea also is struggling with positive form as they are not good at converting goal opportunities or stopping their opponent’s ability to convert goal chances.

This leaves Liverpool.

Everton may not need to get points against their rivals, but I suspect that Ancelotti will develop a plan to spoil the champions-elect’s party plans. Everton will at least make things more difficult for Jurgen Klopp than the previous derby where Silva’s club rolled over early and often. This match-up reminds me of the Manchester derby two years ago when Manchester City could have clinched the title at home and failed against another one-match maestro, Jose Mourinho.

Carlo Ancelotti being hired at Everton was a bold move that few outside of Everton were expecting. He has an incredible track record of winning trophies in multiple leagues and situations. Though he, like all top managers, has a chosen style of play, Ancelotti has shown over the years a talent for flexibility in strategy that has helped his club utilize their talent more effectively. This is something that Jurgen Klopp has gotten better at since coming to Liverpool.

It has worked out for Everton, so far.

There is no telling whether this resurgence at Goodison Park will last. There is a tough road ahead. Even further down the fixture list is Tottenham, Wolves, and Sheffield United who are also in the hunt for European qualification and have managers that are also among the best in Europe. It is possible that the Blues will fall closer to the mean, but the numbers tell me otherwise as there is very little difference between actual goals for and against and their expected goals for and against since Christmas.

Everton made a big move that big clubs make. I’m not predicting Champions League (sticking with Wolves here), but 5th is not out of the question with Carlo Ancelotti prowling the sidelines.