Fantasy Premier League 2019/20 – Fixtures Analysis

The much-lauded start for Everton is actually not quite as good as Man City’s when considering attacking returns.

The reigning Champions face the weakest defences over both the first 6 weeks and the first 10 weeks! So you should consider doubling up on Sterling/Bernardo Silva and keep a close eye on when Aguero might return after his exertions in the Copa America.

Liverpool actually faces a fairly middle of the road set of fixtures in both time frames. However, when you take into account the incredible defensive displays they put out last year, they have the lowest expected goals conceded!

Looking more long-term, Burnley have a good opening run of fixtures and they can provide some cheap options in Charlie Taylor or Nick Pope. When you allow for their own strengths it paints a less optimistic picture, but in Burnley’s case, it is likely that using just one season of data will work against them as their numbers will be skewed by their poor start, due to the Europa League.

West Ham also stands out as a team facing a string of poor defences. Who knows if Sebastian Haller will hit the ground running (he scored his first pre season goal this week), but he could be a good early season option.

At the other end of the scale, Spurs have the worst start of any team, facing the strongest defences (Liverpool, City and Arsenal away in the opening 10) and the second strongest attacks. If you’ve just rebuilt your squad to include Harry Kane then maybe you would be better off waiting until week 11 when things start to clear up!

We also have Crystal Palace and Watford facing potentially tough starts, so the likes of Wilfred Zaha (if he stays) and Deulofeu seem to be over-hyped. Finally, it’s going to be a tough start to life back in the Premier League for newly promoted Norwich and Sheffield United.

They both score very low on expected goals scored, and Norwich have the worst opening 6 fixtures for their defence!